Breaking Down the Florida Senate Race

With a flurry of big-name candidates bowing out - an interesting cast of characters for the Senate seat being vacated by Mel Martinez remains.  This isn't meant to be an in-depth analysis of each candidate (I'll do that some other time) - just my opinion on the candidates (both declared and undeclared) as it stands today.  Let's see what this list looks like in six months...

Democrats

Dan Gelber
Two words - Steve Schale.  Gelber has the support of Schale, who most recently ran President Obama's Florida campaign operation.  Will that be enough to catapult Gelber into the U.S. Senate, who knows?  The biggest hurdle for Gelber is one the other Democratic candidates share (but its a slightly bigger hurdle for him) - is name recognition.  Who is Dan Gelber?  But hey, its always better to start off with no impression as opposed to a negative one.

Pam Iorio
My hometown mayor is looking at a win/win situation in entering the 2010 race.  She's termed out as mayor in 2011 and hails from the all-important 'I-4 corridor' of the state.  Noone from central or north Florida appears to be seriously considering the race - and while geography is not the end-all, be-all that some make it out to be - in a race that potentially has 4 candidates, it can make a difference.  Not being much of a 'political' politico would prove to be a plus in a general election - notsomuch in a primary.  She's 49 - so a loss for her would give her an increased statewide profile to run for future office.  But call me crazy (and I've been called worse) - Iorio has more of an executive background and I say throw caution to the wind and hop in the Governor's race.  One thing Florida Democrats cannot afford to do in 2010 is not field a viable candidate for Governor.  Charlie Crist is popular but he is by no means unbeatable...

Ron Klein
He starts off with $1.7 mil from his last congressional race (raised $4 mil overall) that can be rolled into a Senate race.  He knocked off veteran lawmaker Clay Shaw in 2006, no easy task and winning this Senate seat will not be an easy task either.

Kendrick Meek
One of two formally declared candidates for the seat and like Iorio, Meek entering the race is a win/win for his political future.  He's already pulled together some of the top political advisers in the business (Steve Hildebrand, Mike Hamby, and Ana Cruz are a few names that come to mind).  Obviously Meek wants to win, but even if he loses - he's only 42.  I don't think Bill Nelson has a Robert Byrd-like desire to stay in the Senate for five decades and Governors are term-limited - so there will be plenty of future opportunities for Meek to parlay the statewide network he will have to build for this race into future races.  Of the four, Meek has a bit more name recognition, due in large part to his leading the effort to put smaller class size limits in the state constitution.

Republicans

Rick Baker
Why not?  Everything I stated about Tampa's mayor applies to St. Pete's mayor  - except he's termed out before the 2010 election - St. Pete mayoral elections are in 2009.  Widely thought to run for CFO if Alex Sink ran for Senate - its not likely he'll take a run at trying to knock her off.  It doesn't seem to be a secret that Baker has loftier ambitions - why not take a run at an open Senate seat?

Vern Buchanan
Biggest advantage - $$$. This race is going to be a pricey one, Buchanan shelled out $6 million of his own cash in his last 2 House races, how far into his pocket would he be willing to go for a Senate seat?

Charlie Crist
The Governor of the Sunshine State is playing coy about his intentions and I don't expect that to change any time soon.  My guess is that this will be a game of 'wait and see' and I think it all depends on whether or not the Dems run a serious Gubernatorial challenger at him in 2010 and how soon that challenger gets in.  One thing that strikes me about Crist is that he seems to be very strategic - if he senses that he has a better shot at winning a Senate seat than retaining the Governor's Mansion - I expect him to jump ship. 

Connie Mack IV
He certainly has statewide name recognition (even if it is from his father, former U.S. Senator Connie Mack III) - but in what could be a crowded field - that (along with the $$$ he could raise because of it) could very well be enough. 

Marco Rubio
The former FL House Speaker is young, charismatic and conservative.  Of the candidates on the list that I've had the occasion to hear speak at some random political/civic gathering (Rubio, Iorio, Meek, Baker and Crist) - I must say I was most impressed with Rubio.  Never underestimate the power of  'the image' - unfortunately most voters are not going to delve into voting records, policy ideas, etc. - the best presentation will often win over the best platform (disclaimer: I am not saying Rubio is simply an 'image' - just making a point here). Nationally, Republicans are looking for their 'Obama' - a 39 year-old (at the time of election - if elected) conservative Hispanic United States Senator, with an attractive (and large) family that screams 'family values' - sounds like a winner to me.

Marion Thorpe, Jr.
He's declared and it's only fair to add him to the analysis.  You can't win a race unless you run - so while he may be the longest of longshots, stranger things have happened...

Comments

[Will]

Nice list of candidates, here's my take. Kendrick Meek has a lock on the Democratic nomination. No serious Florida Democrats are going to challenge Bill Clinton's advice and Meek is young and fresh.

On the Republican side, the only one I'd discount is Baker. Crist is also a longshot, not because he can't run (he can), but because, as you pointed out, he's strategic. The Governor's race is a breeze for him. The Senate would be 50/50. So count Crist out. By contrast, Marion Thorpe has a much better shot. He's Florida's past Chief Medical Officer, making him the only likely Republican to enter the field with previous statewide experience. It's also time that both parties started to advance minority candidates to increase the voting base and to get all potential voters involved and excited about the process. A Thorpe-Meek race does that for both parties. If only one party bites, that's the one that will win.